Is it enough to retire?
Answered from the historical record rather than a rule of thumb. Every portfolio below is replayed through each 30-year window since 1928, using the real returns and real inflation of those years.
How to read this
- Supported spending is the most a portfolio could fund while surviving at least 90% of historical retirements. It includes $24,000 a year of Social Security.
- $500,000 supported $44,000 a year. $5 million supported $224,000.
- The safe rate barely moves with portfolio size, because history does not care how large the number is, only what share of it you withdraw. What changes is the dollars that rate buys.
- Success rates do not decline gently as spending rises. They hold, then fall off a cliff, which each amount page shows directly.
| Portfolio | Safe rate | From portfolio | Plus Social Security | Total supported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | 4.00% | $20,000 | $24,000 | $44,000 |
| $750,000 | 4.00% | $30,000 | $24,000 | $54,000 |
| $1 million | 4.00% | $40,000 | $24,000 | $64,000 |
| $1.25 million | 4.00% | $50,000 | $24,000 | $74,000 |
| $1.5 million | 4.00% | $60,000 | $24,000 | $84,000 |
| $2 million | 4.00% | $80,000 | $24,000 | $104,000 |
| $2.5 million | 4.00% | $100,000 | $24,000 | $124,000 |
| $3 million | 4.00% | $120,000 | $24,000 | $144,000 |
| $4 million | 4.00% | $160,000 | $24,000 | $184,000 |
| $5 million | 4.00% | $200,000 | $24,000 | $224,000 |
1928 to 2025 market data, 30-year retirements, 70% stocks and 30% bonds, spending raised with actual inflation each year. Taxes and fees are excluded, so treat the draw as pre-tax. Each amount page shows the full success curve rather than the single threshold figure.
Before you trust the number
The failures were not random
Retirements that ran out clustered in the periods that started badly: 1929, 1966, 1973. A bad first decade does damage the next twenty years cannot repair. That is sequence risk, and it is why an average return is the wrong thing to plan on.
Nobody spends like the backtest
It withdraws the same real amount every year no matter what markets did. Real retirees cut back after a crash, and that flexibility alone rescues most failing scenarios. A budget you can trim beats a slightly bigger portfolio you cannot.
Thirty years is an assumption
These figures suit retiring around 65. Leaving at 50 means planning for 45 years, which lowers the safe rate and adds a health insurance bridge. The spending-level pages solve for that directly.
Your numbers, not the reference ones
Retirement length, your actual Social Security benefit and your account mix all move the answer. The full tool takes all three and runs the same historical record against them.
Run your plan free60 seconds, no signup required
Related: Backtesting, Data sources, Retirement scenarios, Spending levels.