Withdrawal rate rules, tested
Five rates, four retirement lengths, every historical period since 1928. The rules are almost always quoted without a horizon attached, which hides the number that decides whether they hold.
What the grid shows
- Over 30 years the 3% rule survived 100% of history and the 5% rule survived 73.9%.
- Read across a row rather than down a column. The same rule loses points to nothing but time, and an early retirement lives in the rightmost column.
- A lower rate means a bigger multiple: 3% is 33 times spending against 25 times for 4%. The safety is bought with working years.
- Every rate assumes spending that never flexes. A budget you can cut after a crash does much of the same work for free.
| Rule | Multiple | 20 years | 30 years | 40 years | 50 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% rule | 33.3x | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3.5% rule | 28.6x | 100% | 100% | 98.3% | 93.9% |
| 4% rule | 25.0x | 100% | 94.2% | 88.1% | 79.6% |
| 4.5% rule | 22.2x | 100% | 87.0% | 69.5% | 59.2% |
| 5% rule | 20.0x | 92.4% | 73.9% | 62.7% | 49.0% |
1928 to 2025 market data, 70% stocks and 30% bonds, spending raised by actual inflation each year and never adjusted for how the portfolio did. Success means the portfolio still held money at the end, which is a low bar: finishing with a dollar counts. Longer horizons have fewer complete historical periods to test.
Reading it honestly
A rate without a horizon means nothing
The original research tested 30 years, and the 4% figure everyone quotes comes from it. Retiring at 45 means planning for 50, which is the rightmost column. The same rule, a very different answer.
Failures were not spread evenly
The periods that ran out clustered around 1929, 1966 and 1973. A bad first decade does damage the following twenty years cannot repair, which is sequence risk. Success rate is a count, not a probability for you.
These assume rigid spending
Every figure withdraws the same real amount regardless of what markets did. Real retirees cut back after a crash, and that alone rescues most failing scenarios. Flexibility is cheaper than a lower rate and does much of the same job.
Pick a rate against your own plan
Your retirement length, allocation and Social Security all move which rate is defensible. Run them together against the same historical record.
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Related: Where the 4% rule came from, Withdrawal strategies, Backtesting, Is it enough.