How much you need, by what you want to spend
Start from the spending and work back to the portfolio. Twelve levels, each solved at seven retirement ages, with Social Security counted rather than ignored.
Why these numbers differ from the usual answer
- Social Security is counted. At $24,000 a year it takes $593,000 off the $80,000 target, which most quick answers leave out entirely. It lowers what the portfolio carries for life, so it is subtracted from spending rather than bolted on afterwards.
- The withdrawal rate is scaled to the length of the retirement instead of being fixed at 4%, so retiring at 50 and at 65 give different answers.
- Health coverage before Medicare is added as a reserve, not assumed away. It is the largest line item nobody budgets for.
- Every page recomputes when you change the Social Security estimate, so the answer is yours rather than an average.
| Spend per year | Retire at 50 | At 62 | At 65 | Usual "25x" answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $970K | $597K | $473K | $1.00M |
| $50,000 | $1.28M | $883K | $740K | $1.25M |
| $60,000 | $1.59M | $1.17M | $1.01M | $1.50M |
| $70,000 | $1.89M | $1.45M | $1.27M | $1.75M |
| $80,000 | $2.20M | $1.74M | $1.54M | $2.00M |
| $90,000 | $2.51M | $2.03M | $1.81M | $2.25M |
| $100,000 | $2.82M | $2.31M | $2.07M | $2.50M |
| $120,000 | $3.43M | $2.88M | $2.61M | $3.00M |
| $150,000 | $4.36M | $3.74M | $3.41M | $3.75M |
| $200,000 | $5.89M | $5.17M | $4.74M | $5.00M |
| $250,000 | $7.43M | $6.60M | $6.07M | $6.25M |
| $300,000 | $8.97M | $8.03M | $7.41M | $7.50M |
Computed with $24,000 a year of Social Security from age 67, a 5% real return and a plan through age 95. The last column is 25 times spending at a flat 4%, ignoring Social Security, which is the figure most calculators return. Each page lets you change the Social Security estimate and see everything move.
Reading the table
The gap closes at the bottom
Social Security is a fixed amount, so it covers a large share of a small budget and a small share of a large one. At $40,000 it removes most of the target. At $300,000 it barely dents it. That is why modest budgets are reachable on ordinary savings and large ones are not.
Retiring early costs twice
A longer retirement needs a lower withdrawal rate, which raises the capital covering your spending. The Social Security bridge is longer, so the reserve holding you over until benefits start is larger. Health coverage before Medicare is a third cost on top. The three stack, which is why the age 50 column runs so far ahead of age 65.
These are pre-tax figures
Withdrawals from a traditional 401(k) or IRA are taxable, so spendable income is lower than the draw. How much lower depends on your account mix and your state.
Test the target against real market history
A multiple is a rule of thumb. A projection against 95 years of actual returns shows what the rule hides, including how the plan behaves if the first five years go badly.
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Related: What a given portfolio supports, Taxes by state, Safe withdrawal rate, Social Security.