Savings rate to independence
Ten savings rates against five return assumptions, and the fact that unsettles people the first time they see it: your income is not in the calculation at all.
What the grid shows
- Saving 10% takes about 51 years, which is a career. Saving 70% takes about 10.
- The curve is steep at the bottom and flat at the top. The first step up buys 8.5 years. The last one buys 4.1.
- Income cancels out, because the rate sets how fast the portfolio fills and how small a portfolio you need at the same time.
- Targets are solved rather than fixed at 25 times spending, so a rate that retires you at 40 is measured against the longer retirement it actually implies.
| Save | Live on | 3% real | 4% real | 5% real | 6% real | 7% real | Free at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 90% | 69.3 | 58.7 | 51.4 | 45.9 | 41.7 | 81 |
| 15% | 85% | 56.1 | 48.4 | 42.8 | 39.6 | 36.2 | 73 |
| 20% | 80% | 46.9 | 41.0 | 37.8 | 34.3 | 32.5 | 68 |
| 25% | 75% | 39.9 | 36.6 | 34.1 | 31.2 | 28.8 | 64 |
| 30% | 70% | 35.6 | 33.1 | 30.1 | 27.6 | 25.6 | 60 |
| 35% | 65% | 32.2 | 29.0 | 26.6 | 24.6 | 23.8 | 57 |
| 40% | 60% | 28.0 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 22.8 | 21.3 | 55 |
| 50% | 50% | 22.1 | 20.5 | 19.1 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 49 |
| 60% | 40% | 16.2 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 44 |
| 70% | 30% | 11.3 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 40 |
Years from a standing start at age 30, saving a constant share of a constant real income. The "free at" column uses the 5% column. Targets are solved by iterating until the retirement age and the withdrawal rate agree rather than fixed at 25 times spending, which is why these run a little longer than the figures published elsewhere. Existing savings shorten all of them.
What this does and does not say
Cutting spending moves both numbers
A raise moves one: more going in. Cutting spending moves two, because the money saved goes in and the target comes down by roughly 30 times the cut. That is why housing and transport decide this and coffee does not.
The rate is often not the constraint
A 60% rate assumes 60% is available after fixed costs. For plenty of households the gap between income and rent is the binding limit, not discipline. Where that is true, Coast FIRE is the reachable milestone and full independence is not.
Social Security is left out
Counting it lowers the target substantially, especially on a modest budget, so these years are conservative for anyone finishing near a normal retirement age. The spending-level pages model it directly.
From a rate to an actual date
This grid starts everyone from zero at 30 and assumes a smooth return. Your balance, your income path and 95 years of real market history all move the answer.
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Related: What is FIRE, Coast FIRE by age, Spending levels, Safe withdrawal rate.