Can I retire at...?

Pick your age and portfolio size. Each scenario shows sustainable annual spending, the healthcare gap before Medicare and what has to be true for the plan to hold.

Figures below are pre-tax annual spending in today's dollars, modelled through age 95. The withdrawal rate is scaled to the length of retirement rather than fixed at 4%: retiring at 45 means planning for 50 years, where 4% has materially worse historical odds than it does over 30.

Sustainable annual spending by retirement age and portfolio size
Retire at	$500K	$750K	$1M	$1.25M	$1.5M	$2M	$2.5M	$3M	$4M	$5M
Age 40 55 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 45 50 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 48 47 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 50 45 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 52 43 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 53 42 yrs · 3.25%	$16K	$24K	$33K	$41K	$49K	$65K	$81K	$98K	$130K	$163K
Age 55 40 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 57 38 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 58 37 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 60 35 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 62 33 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 63 32 yrs · 3.5%	$18K	$26K	$35K	$44K	$53K	$70K	$88K	$105K	$140K	$175K
Age 65 30 yrs · 3.75%	$19K	$28K	$38K	$47K	$56K	$75K	$94K	$113K	$150K	$188K
Age 67 28 yrs · 3.75%	$19K	$28K	$38K	$47K	$56K	$75K	$94K	$113K	$150K	$188K
Age 68 27 yrs · 3.75%	$19K	$28K	$38K	$47K	$56K	$75K	$94K	$113K	$150K	$188K
Age 70 25 yrs · 4%	$20K	$30K	$40K	$50K	$60K	$80K	$100K	$120K	$160K	$200K

Each figure links to the full scenario. Social Security, pensions and other income are excluded, adding them raises what the portfolio can support.

A table can't tell you if you're on track

These scenarios assume a steady withdrawal against average returns. Real retirements face a specific sequence of returns, real tax treatment and real timing on Social Security. Run your own numbers against historical data instead.

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