When Can I Retire?
The answer depends on four things: what you have, what you save, what you need, and what the market does. Here's how each one affects your timeline.
Last updated: Aug 2026
Quick answer
You can retire when your portfolio can reliably fund your spending for the rest of your life. Your retirement date depends on current savings, monthly contributions, target spending and market returns. Most people should plan for a range of dates rather than one date by testing conservative, average and optimistic scenarios.
The four variables
Current portfolio
Everything you've already saved across all accounts: 401(k), IRA, brokerage, savings. This is your starting line.
Monthly savings
How much you add each month. Small increases compound dramatically over decades. Saving $500 more per month can move your date by years.
Target number
The portfolio value you need to sustain your desired spending. How to calculate it →
Investment returns
The market is unpredictable, which is why projecting a single return is misleading. You need to see the range: average, above average and below average outcomes.
Why ranges matter more than a single date
Most calculators give you one answer: "You can retire in 22 years." But that assumes a constant return every year, which never happens.
Seeing the range helps you plan for realistic outcomes, not just the best case.
What moves the needle most
The single biggest lever. How much you save matters more than what return you earn.
Reducing annual spending by $10,000 can cut years off your timeline.
A head start helps, but ongoing contributions compound more over long horizons.
Matters, but you can't control it. Focus on what you can: savings and spending.
How RetireNumber helps
Enter your age, savings, monthly contribution and target number. RetireNumber projects three scenarios (conservative, average, optimistic) and runs Monte Carlo simulations so you see the full range of when you might reach your goal.
See when you can retire, freeNext step: estimate your date
Start with the retirement number calculator, then use the full retirement timeline calculator to test conservative, average and optimistic scenarios.